Evaluating FA Predictions + Mailbag Questions
Houston was even more aggressive than anticipated to set a new baseline for the offensive line
The early stages of Free Agency are in the books and the Houston Texans have several new players that have joined the “Swarm” under head coach DeMeco Ryans and offensive coordinator Nick Caley. Despite many fans deciding to absolutely panic at no offensive lining signing on the first day, general manager Nick Caserio did ultimately a few notable additions to the squad.
Last week on Texans Code Blue, we speculated what the team’s strategy might be with what players they would target over the first week. It’s a worthwhile exercise to see how closely our predictions lined up with what strategy the team actually went with and if we learned anything new from moves they did (or did not) make.
Let’s kick it off.
1. Houston signed more than just one expensive offensive lineman
This one is ultimately wrong but for reasons that should be exciting for anyone rooting for the success of the Texans in 2026.
Houston signed guard Ed Ingram to a three year contract extension at $12M APY just prior to the start of the legal tampering period. Ingram, who underwent a career revival this past season with the Texans after struggling in Minnesota, is a younger (27) guard who fits the desired power run game that Houston is looking to assemble under offensive line coach Cole Popovich. As such, maybe it should have come as no surprise that he was the team’s choice to invest in significantly financially for the line.
Familiarity, youth, talent and scheme fit were all factors in Ingram’s favor and he should be in pen as one of Houston’s five starters in 2026.
Of course, this prediction is ultimately wrong because the Texans later opened up the checkbook for Braden Smith...
2. The Texans found three, not just two, presumed OL starters before the draft
Last week on Thursday afternoon, news broke that the Texans were bringing in Indianapolis Colts’ right tackle Braden Smith on a two year contract at $12.5M APY. Smith has spent the last 8 seasons anchoring the right tackle position for the Colts and should fit the run-first identity that Houston is looking for.
Interestingly, NFL Insiders announced the signing with the important caveat that Smith primarily played guard in college. He was an All-Pro guard for the Auburn Tigers and his more compact build led some, such as NFL.com’s Lance Zierlien, to suggest that Smith could slot into the left guard spot if needed.
At the time, this made a lot of sense as it would leave the right tackle spot to Trent Brown and likely a rookie to compete while Smith transitioned to a spot that can be friendlier towards aging lineman due to less lateral movement. Of course it didn’t play out that way.
Wyatt Teller, a former 3x Pro Bowl and 2x All-Pro left guard, signed yesterday with the Texans on a deal that has yet to be disclosed. ‘Teller Tuesday’ was indeed a smashing success.
Teller’s arrival brings both major optimism for the line with the veteran foundation in place and should provide a great deal of clarity on the projected lineup entering the draft.
LT – Aireontae Ersery
LG – Wyatt Teller
C – Jake Andrews
RG – Ed Ingram
RT – Braden Smith
Nobody should be forced to switch positions and all five of these players were more than passable at their positions last year. This is a pretty significant upgrade compared to 12 months ago when the team was openly relying on unknowns like Blake Fisher or busts like Juice Scruggs to hopefully take steps forward.
We’ll discuss later in the week what some overarching takeaways are from the first two weeks of free agency, but this is promising that the Texans were even more aggressive than anticipated in paying for offensive line stability.
3. Foster Moreau should open up 12-personnel for Houston
On paper, Foster Moreau is not the sexiest signing that the Texans could’ve found for 12-personnel.
Moreau has played for 2 teams over his 7 NFL seasons, notably some bad teams in Las Vegas and New Orleans respectively, and he has only 151 career receptions to his name. His best season came in 2024 with 17 games started and 32 receptions for 413 yards and 5 touchdowns. However, Moreau’s true value on the field to the Texans won’t be coming from his ability to catch the ball (although he’s certainly passable.)
The LSU graduate is a willing and capable blocker on the line. He is not Evan Engram or Dalton Kincaid, a finesse tight end who is in reality a bulked up slot receiver. Moreau is capable of lining up on the line and contributing in a positive way to the running scheme. He spent most of the last year doing the dirty work while Juwan Johnson got to do more of the notable receiving work.
This was a major check box for Houston if Caley’s offense was going to take the next step forward in 2026. The coaching staff needs to have heavier personnel packages available that are not just jumbo (6 offensive lineman) and Moreau makes those two tight end sets a reality next to Dalton Schultz.
The two year contract for just $7M total is a value find and brings clarity to the tight end room. Brevin Jordan and Cade Stover respectively make far more sense as potential TE3 options and his presence won’t preclude them from drafting a Day 2 or Day 3 tight end if they’re so inclined in April.
This is exactly the archetype we expected the Texans to pursue and they found it early in free agency.
4. Gambles are here, and likely more coming, for Cole Popovich and Rod Wright
It’s still early in free agency and I expect these groups to be further fleshed out by the time we get to the draft and training camp. Still, we saw early signings at both position groups that probably weren’t on many folk’s radars.
Evan Brown started at the guard spots (left guard in 2025) and at center (2024) over the last three years in Seattle and Arizona and spot started for Detroit in 2022. He hasn’t been a stellar player for either team but at just $3.5M he represents a depth value to the Texans and is likely someone they’re interested to see in their run scheme.
It isn’t often you’re able to find full time starters over the last three seasons at this price and he, at worst, represents good competition for Jake Andrews at center. This has the potential to be the 2026 version of Ed Ingram where a player gains a ton of value under Cole Popovich.
On the other side, Chicago Bears defensive end Dominique Robinson signed a 1 year deal worth up to $4M. He likely factors into special teams and will be another depth piece for the Texans terrifying defensive front. He’ll factor in for snaps behind Dylan Horton and others and has a chance to re-enter free agency next year with really good film for a potential pay day.
5. The veteran defensive tackle was on the younger side, but Logan Hall counts
University of Houston graduate Logan Hall will have a homecoming as he signed a two year, $14M contract with the Texans in the first week of free agency.
The explosive defensive tackle struggled to find his footing in Tampa Bay after he was drafted in the second round but slowly rounded into form by the end of last season. He started 16 games in 2025 and amassed 39 total tackles with 1.5 sacks, 23 quarterback pressures, and 2 tackles for loss while playing 58.5% of the defensive snaps per Next Gen Stats.
Hall is the archetype of defensive tackle that could thrive in DeMeco Ryans scheme with his explosive up-field ability and obvious talent. He’ll be surrounded by far better pass rushers in Houston than he ever was in Tampa Bay and the presence of Will Anderson Jr., Danielle Hunter, Sheldon Rankins and others should create 1-on-1 opportunities in the interior where Hall can excel.
He wasn’t quite as old as the type of player we projected here, but he thoroughly fits as someone who is well into their NFL career and looking to optimize their output in the friendly defensive scheme. Hall will even have the advantage of hopefully finding a larger third contract at the end of this deal as Tim Settle and other defensive tackles have done after leaving Ryans.
6. Reed Blankenship Quick Notes
Reed Blankenship was an interesting signing considering the already loaded defense but it’s easy to see his fit for the Texans.
Blankenship will bring stability next to Calen Bullock and can be trusted to properly execute assignments in their coverage shells. He’s a reliable tackler and there’s a reason he found such consistent snaps under defensive guru Vic Fangio.
He won’t be a special ballhawk like Bullock nor will he make explosive plays against the run like Jalen Pitre but that isn’t why he’s here. Blankenship’s presence will allow other players to be special at what they do and his contract at 3 years and $8M APY is pretty reasonable to assemble what will be considered the best defensive secondary in the NFL.
7. Your Questions from Twitter
From:@Mitchel53105883 “Thoughts on going defensive stud in the first vs. reaching for O-Line”
To be very fair, I’m behind on my draft process for where I’d normally be for mid-March but still think we can cover this idea comfortably.
The additions of Wyatt Teller and Braden Smith to this offensive line make a selection there less pressing but they don’t necessarily change the underlying truth of the unit. The Texans have found a solid floor with these veterans but they still need to get younger and add more talent if they want to access a real ceiling for running the football.
If there is no offensive lineman worth taking at the end of the first round per the team’s board and there’s an excellent defensive tackle, say Texas Tech’s Lee Hunter, I could see the team going that direction to secure a premium talent at a premiere position for Ryans’ defense. That’s how they’ve always operated under Caserio.
If the evaluations are close, however, I would still lean going with someone like Oregon’s Emmanuel Pregnon or Alabama’s Kadyn Proctor to begin the necessary youth and talent infusion that the offensive line needs.
We’ll explore this more in depth next week.
From:@GraysonHolmberg “Do you think Nick trades down for more 2-3 round picks?”
We all know this is something that Houston loves to do under Caserio, as they’ve traded out of the first round for two consecutive seasons now. The problem here will be – Who wants to come up in the draft?
Minnesota was highly motivated in 2024 to stockpile additional first round picks as they wanted draft ammunition to move up for Drake Maye (tough luck) and the Giants needed to take a quarterback at the end of the first if Brian Daboll was going to save his job.
Does that team exist this year? Is there an equivalent prospect to Jaxon Dart that will rise by the end of this prospect? We’ll see if the New York Jets feel the pressure to have a rookie in the building by virtue of being essentially pre-fired or if Alabama’s Ty Simpson can make that type of impression.
Let me know in the comments or on Twitter if you all have any questions for the next article and we’ll plan to take a high level overview of what we’ve learned so far about the future 2026 Texans in a few days here.